The Albany Gazette - Asian traders give mixed reaction as China's economic growth slows

The five percent expansion was in line with the target set by Beijing but the weakest since 1990 -- excluding the pandemic years -- as leaders fought to address weak consumption and a painful debt crisis in the vast property sector.

A survey of 12 economists by AFP forecast growth of 4.9 percent.

A surge in the final quarter, helped by a string of stimulus measures, and a boost in retail sales were also unable to inject much optimism onto trading floors, which were already cautious as dealers prepare for Donald Trump's second term amid fears of another China-US trade war.

The 2024 growth figure came in the face of a "complicated and severe environment with increasing external pressures and internal difficulties", the National Bureau of Statistics said.

Beijing has introduced a series of measures in recent months to bolster the economy, including key interest rate cuts, easing local government debt and expanding subsidy programs for household goods.

However, analysts surveyed by AFP warned it could fall to just 4.4 percent this year and even drop below four percent in 2026.

One of the rare bright spots for the economy last year was trade, with exports hitting a historic high, but its massive trade surplus means Beijing may not be able to count on exports to continue to provide support.

Trump, who returns to the White House on Monday, has promised to impose more hefty sanctions on China.

"Amid a relentless barrage of economic pessimism, China's economy defied expectations with a robust five percent growth last year, nailing the government's ambitious target," said Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management.

"This surge was fuelled by a vigorous export boom and aggressive stimulus measures that counterbalanced the sluggish domestic demand. Although slightly outpacing analyst forecasts, this growth fell just shy of the 5.2 percent expansion seen in 2023, painting a picture of an economy with both promising highs and undeniable challenges."

Hong Kong and Shanghai swung between gains and losses, while Tokyo, Seoul, Taipei and Jakarta fell. Sydney, Singapore, Wellington and Manila rose.

The tepid performance followed a lacklustre day on Wall Street, where investors were unable to extend Wednesday's inflation-sparked rally.

US investors were barely moved by the latest dovish comments from a top Federal Reserve official that hinted at a further easing of monetary policy this year.

Governor Christopher Waller told CNBC that Wednesday's below-forecast core inflation data was "very good", adding that "we had a couple of bumpy months in September and October but it looks like it's getting back to trend".

"If we continue getting numbers like this, it's reasonable to think rate cuts could happen in the first half of the year,” he said, indicating he would not rule out a cut in March.

He said the number of reductions would be data-dependent.

His comments came as figures showed US retail sales grew at a slightly slower pace than expected from November to December but still at a solid increase, while the National Retail Federation forecast a bigger-than-expected rise in US holiday sales.

Consumer price index figures on Wednesday fell just short of estimates, which eased concerns the Fed will keep interest rates high.

- Key figures around 0230 GMT -

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.0 percent at 38,193.05 (break)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.1 percent at 19,513.81

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.1 percent at 3,232.83

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0302 from $1.0306 on Thursday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2231 from $1.2237

Dollar/yen: UP at 155.28 yen from 155.17 yen

Euro/pound: UP at 84.24 pence from 84.18 pence

West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.5 percent at $79.04 per barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.3 percent at $81.53 per barrel

New York - Dow: DOWN 0.2 percent at 43,153.13 (close)

London - FTSE 100: UP 1.1 percent at 8,391.90 (close)

(P.Davis--TAG)